[Comment: Two scenarios for alternative futures. This is the most fun bit of future studies and (unlike this paper) is best done with a group of people. This method involves choosing three emerging trends, looking at the impacts they will have and describing the world you've created. Top stuff.]

[ Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 ]

Introduction

This scenario was created using the Hawaii Research Center method of scenario building, and is set in the year 2025. The following three trends were used:

• Robots for simple tasks become widespread
• Continued and increased wealth divide
• Carbon fuels become increasingly expensive

Scenario Description

While worries about the depletion of natural resources have been heard for decades, resources are still available. However, new sources proved expensive and dangerous to access and this resulted in steadily rising costs leading to price increases for fuel and electricity. In a society where the separation between rich and poor has widened, many people cannot afford the energy once taken for granted. Those in the lower end of society who can still afford to run combustion-engined cars (and they certainly can¹t afford new 'green' cars) must restrict their travel as much as possible. Conserving power has become ingrained among these people and energy-hungry appliances are used sparingly or not at all.

As robots became increasingly prevalent in society many of the poor lost their low-end jobs. Many cleaning tasks, both in- and outdoor, were given over to automated machines which could happily sweep, mop and polish day and night. As people became more accustomed to these robotic helpers many service jobs were automated with the help of voice recognition. Large stores and fast food outlets, for example, managed to drastically cut the number of humans required.

Conversely, for the wealthy life has by and large become more comfortable. While energy costs have been a problem many can afford the higher prices and even switch to alternative premium suppliers (or re-branded branches of existing utility companies) which guarantee none of the occasional outages which plague the traditional sources. Alternatively, many plan ahead for a situation only getting worse by installing solar panels on their houses and improving the energy efficiency of their homes. They can also afford to buy newer, more energy efficient vehicles. Rates of international travel have slowed however as flights become prohibitively expensive to all but the most wealthy.

The very robotic helpers which have caused so many job losses have made life much more comfortable for society's well-off. They can afford a number of helpers and electronic appliances which give them increased leisure time. These servants can maintain the house and garden, look after and educate young children, and provide security. Sending children to private schools is perfectly common, and indicative of the separation between the two strata of society. They are physically separated much of the time, particularly with many poor people unable to afford to travel far from their communities, and frequently forbidden from entering the guarded world of the wealthy. The well-off live in a society where menial tasks are undertaken by machines, and whose homes and communities are protected by robots. The poor see little reason for hope. Uprisings and grass-roots action are increasingly common with a number of people able to 'hack' robots to turn them into destructive forces.

Government is under pressure from both ends of the divide. The poor understandably desire jobs and are requiring a larger and larger welfare outlay. The wealthy however see themselves paying the bulk of the taxes and want more of a return on their money, not to mention increased law and order measures to combat the insurrections from below.

Brainstorm

• Robots for simple tasks become widespread
  • Household cleaning done by robots
  • Robot street cleaners
  • Unmanned combine harvesters
  • Unmanned delivery trucks? Just local?
  • Robot perimeter guards
  • Robot child minders/entertainers
  • Vastly increased use of robots in manufacturing
  • Robot theme parks
  • Robot teachers
  • Robot personal trainers
  • Anti-robot pressure groups
  • Robo hacking
  • Job losses in manufacturing, cleaning, security, delivery - many low end jobs
• Increased wealth divide
  • Increasingly stratified urban landscapes - ghettos and fortresses
  • Increase in private education and healthcare
  • Increasing welfare burden
  • Demands for tax reform from wealthy (they don't want to subsidise what they don't use)
  • Increasing unrest among the poor
• Carbon fuels become increasingly expensive
  • Car use declines
  • New cars appear with alternative energy sources
  • Public transport use increases
  • More junked cars
  • Alternative energy sources increasingly used
  • Dual-track utilities supply
  • Personal generators
  • Personal solar/wind power
  • People more careful about using electrical items
  • Flights more expensive
  • Brown-outs
  • Carbon tax
  • Usage restrictions
  • Energy efficient houses constructed
• Robots + wealth divide
  • Only the wealthy can afford the assistance and benefits of robots
  • Big market for used robots (maybe further ahead, when they've been around for years)
  • Tendency for robot street cleaners etc. not to be sent to poor areas for fear of theft/vandalism.
• Wealth divide + expensive fuels
  • Poor have to watch their energy usage much more
  • Rich can afford premier utility suppliers that guarantee no outages
  • Poor can't afford to travel far
  • More local shops etc. in poorer neighbourhoods
  • Stealing power supplies
• Expensive fuels + robots
  • Robots run on solar power, very energy efficient

[ Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 ]